A potentially catastrophic asteroid named 2024 YR4 recently made headlines after NASA made the startling announcement that there was a possibility it could hit Earth. With a 2.3 per cent chance of impact, this space rock could strike in 2032. For context, currently, no other known large asteroids have an impact probability above 1 per cent.  And while the odds for YR4 still remain low(ish), this news has got both astronomers and the public concerned.

From the likelihood of impact to which areas on Earth might be affected, here’s everything you need to know about asteroid 2024 YR4.

So there's a 2% chance an asteroid is going to hit the earth in 2032 pic.twitter.com/zx1yZnhiWR

— ⋆ 🐯 🅣🅐🅡🅐 🐯 ⋆ (@Tara_was_taken) February 12, 2025

Discovered in December 2024 by advanced telescopes in Rio Hurtado, Chile, asteroid 2024 YR4 is now under intense scrutiny. The asteroid is currently classified at level 3 on the Torino Impact Hazard Scale, which is a system that indicates the risk of a potential asteroid collision. Level 3 means the asteroid warrants attention but poses a low immediate risk to Earth.

For context, the Torino Scale ranges from 0 (no threat) to 10 (global catastrophe), and anything above 1 triggers investigations. Right now, with a 2.3 per cent chance of impact, experts are closely monitoring its orbit.

An asteroid the size of the Statue of Liberty is approaching Earth

Asteroid 2024 YR4 was discovered in December 2024. Its diameter is between 40 and 90 meters, and the probable moment of impact is 2032. Initially, NASA estimated the risks at 1%, but later increased it to 2.3%.…

— 🇺🇦 paolo rel (@paolobucci18) February 15, 2025

As reported by NASA, if it does collide with Earth, the most probable time will be 2:02 pm on 22 December 2032. The asteroid would likely strike somewhere in the eastern Pacific Ocean, northern South America, or Africa, though the trajectory still remains uncertain.

As if this fucking world wasn't already on a one-way ticket to hell, brace yourselves because:

A goddamn asteroid, with a 1-in-43 chance of crashing into our miserable planet on December 22, 2032, has just been added to NASA's apocalyptic watchlist. This bastard, known as 2024… pic.twitter.com/T05hBnRO5T

— P a u l ◉ (@SkylineReport) February 17, 2025

We don’t have a lot of details on asteroid 2024 YR4, but estimates suggest it’s between 131 and 295 feet (40 to 90 meters) across, which is roughly comparable to the size of a large building. Dr Paul Chodas, from NASA’s Center for Near-Earth Object Studies (CNEOS), highlighted the uncertainty around its exact size, adding that it’s still under close observation.

Asteroid 2024 YR4, discovered in December 2024, has an estimated 1-in-50 chance of impacting Earth on December 22, 2032. Measuring 130-300 feet (40-90 meters), it would hit at 38,000 mph (61,000 km/h), releasing energy equivalent to 7.7 megatons of TNT, enough for significant… https://t.co/HIPuGcKV1v

— Physics In History (@PhysInHistory) February 15, 2025

As of now, experts are relying on powerful telescopes, including the James Webb Space Telescope to gather more data. But until they confirm its exact size, the potential threat remains unclear.

Currently, 2024 YR4 is still tens of millions of miles away and moving farther from Earth. Scientists have until April 2025 to monitor the asteroid before it disappears behind the Sun, making it impossible to track it until 2028.

While still an extremely low possibility, asteroid 2024 YR4's impact probability with Earth has increased from about 1% to a 2.3% chance on Dec. 22, 2032. As we observe the asteroid more, the impact probability will become better known. More: https://t.co/VWiASTMBDi pic.twitter.com/Z1mpb4UPaC

— NASA Asteroid Watch (@AsteroidWatch) February 7, 2025

In the meantime, the asteroid has triggered global cooperation between NASA, the European Space Agency (ESA), and other space agencies. They are sharing information to determine whether it poses a true risk, and if so, how they could deflect it.

Only once scientists have a clearer understanding of the asteroid’s orbit and size will they begin to recommend any necessary measures, if required.

If 2024 YR4 is on a collision course, one possible solution is to send a spacecraft to impact the asteroid and alter its trajectory. This technique was successfully demonstrated by NASA in 2022 with the 160-meter-wide asteroid Dimorphos.

The mission, known as the Double Asteroid Redirection Test (DART), served as a practice run for such an event. It was successful in reaching and striking the asteroid, resulting in a shift of its orbit by roughly 32 minutes. However, another spacecraft, HERA, is en route to Dimorphos to evaluate the long-term success of the mission, with its arrival scheduled for January next year.

NASA and ESA are adamant that the chances of an asteroid collision are extremely low. Still, experts like Jan Luis Cano, of the ESA’s Planetary Defence Office say: “Let me tell you, the most likely scenario is that by the time we lose sight of the object in April this year, the impact probabilities will have lowered enough not to worry about this object anymore. However, there is still some small chance that it will remain on our risk list and when we come back, when it will come back in 2028 and we re-observe it, at that time it will have been so much time enough for us to determine whether it will be impacting or not completely. So it would be zero or 100%.”

While experts may downplay the risk, social media platforms, particularly TikTok, have seen a surge in reactions from Gen Z. Some posts jokingly discuss preparing for an “end-of-world” scenario, while others speculate on the potential consequences in dramatic, often humorous, ways.

@omaragamyy2

Well not our problem i guess #earth #nasa #moon #fyp

♬ original sound - omaragamyy2

@keepitunfiltered

New discovered asteroid has a 1.3% chance of striking earth in the next 8 years. What’s your dooms day plan? #greenscreen #asteroid #nasa #bc #britishcolumbia #vancouver #local #global #warning #canada #2025

♬ original sound - Unfiltered

@kirkiimad

2% 😨😨

♬ som original - pierre

Some creators are even oddly excited about it, suggesting that given everything from inflation to recessions, maybe the asteroid is a much-needed escape. The hashtag #asteroid2032 is even trending, with people half-joking that seven years of waiting might be too long!

@

♬ -

@riristahn

yuh we tired #asteroid #fyp #humans

♬ original sound - Adam G