Gather around girlies: Here’s what to expect from the UK general election result
By the early hours of the morning on Friday 5 July 2024, we as a nation, will hopefully know what the future holds for the UK. At the very least, we’ll be able to send a sweet kiss goodbye to the crooked Conservatives—good riddance, babes. The UK general election is well and truly upon us and, with it being crunch time, I thought it would be helpful for us to go through a super quick rundown of exactly everything you should expect from the polling results. Spoiler alert: my own personal prediction includes Reform UK’s main moron, Nigel Farage, having to wipe at least one or two more milkshake stains off his tie.
Ever since Prime Minister Rishi Sunak announced that there would be a general election back in May, polls have consistently predicted that the Labour party will come out on top. And while it is looking more and more concrete that it’ll be Keir Starmer slipping into something comfortable and playing house at 10 Downing Street, it’s still important that we go through all the possibilities.
Moreover, will the Green Party or the Liberal Democrats manage to snag some crucial seats? Let’s hope that the Lib Dems’ leader Ed Davey didn’t throw himself off a crane and ride all the rides at Thorpe Park for nothing.
Which party is going to win a majority in the UK general election 2024?
Currently, every major publication and poll prediction platform is forecasting that Labour will win a majority when polls close at 10pm on Thursday 4 July. Electoral Calculus has confirmed that it is highly unlikely that there will be any outcome other than a Labour government.
Labour, who I still personally believe need a serious rethink about their branding and their leadership (but that’s just me) have been 20 points ahead of the Conservatives for weeks now. Speaking with CNBC, polling expert John Curtice emphasised how voter turnout is still essential for a Labour win: “The Labour Party wants to be able to convince voters that it’s absolutely central that they turn out and vote, because otherwise the Tories will win, and the Tories are desperate for people to think that they have still got a chance, and therefore it’s worth turning up.”
In 2019, Labour lost a big chunk of the ‘red wall’. In short, the red wall is simply a term people who’re trying to appear smart and superior use when they’re referring to the leftist party losing a big chunk of seats to the Tories in the Midlands and North of England. What commentators are predicting is that this could be the year Labour get the wall back.
When it comes to the other players in the game, one of the minor insights includes the fact that the Green Party could win two rural seats from the Conservatives.
In respect of Davey and the Lib Dem rascals, this election marks a pretty significant year for the party. Not only have they pursued a pretty rogue (and I’d argue effective) campaign strategy, but they’ve also managed to scrounge up enough support that it’s a likelihood they’ll take home up to 25 seats.
Reform UK has arguably made a big impact, but perhaps not in the way they would’ve liked. While Farage and his cronies have dominated headlines recently, notably for the multiple defections over alleged racism, misogyny, and anti-immigration rhetoric within the party, the most probable prediction is that Reform’s popularity will sway the balance against the Tories.
As explained by The Guardian’s analysis, at each level of swing, Labour can make 100 or more extra seat gains if we move from a low to a high rate of Conservative-to-Reform switching.
While it won’t be too much of a shock in respect of the party due to win the majority of seats, there is still a lot to play for when it comes to the other party’s influence. and impact. So, make sure to store your ID in your pink card holder and trot your way over to the polling station today hunnies, it’s a big day.
