Welcome to our final-ever US weekly recap. Election day is only four days away, so to say that we’re in the final stretch is an understatement. For our last recap, we’re focusing on how a gambling site might play a crucial role in potentially the most important US presidential election in history.

Over the past few months, a handful of high-stakes accounts on the crypto-gambling site Polymarket have thrown down over $50 million bets on Donald Trump winning the 2024 US presidential election, as reported by The Independent. These accounts—going by the names Fredi9999, Theo4, PrincessCaro, and Michie—have all been traced back to a single French financial guru and have tilted Polymarket’s odds in Trump’s favour, giving him a whopping 66 per cent chance of victory. That’s a huge leap from what traditional polls are saying, with FiveThirtyEight having Trump at just 46.7 per cent versus Kamala Harris’s 48.1 per cent.

This situation illustrates how easily one wealthy individual can manipulate online betting markets, painting a picture that Trump is the clear frontrunner. Polymarket maintains that the trader didn’t intentionally try to boost Trump’s odds, but it reveals the massive influence money has in shaping perceptions. Trump supporters have already picked up on it, sharing screenshots of these odds on social media as “proof” of Trump’s inevitable win. Moreover, these predictions will also further embolden right-wing activists to make claims of a “stolen election” if Trump loses.

Even Elon Musk has jumped in, sharing Polymarket’s stats on X, claiming that betting odds are way more reliable than polls because, hey, “money’s on the line.”

Americans have found workarounds using VPNs and cryptocurrency to bet on the election, adding to the site’s volume and visibility. And they’re not alone: after a federal judge overturned a longstanding US ban on election betting, platforms like Robinhood and Kalshi jumped into the mix, with Kalshi even running ads on Right Side Broadcasting Network during Trump rallies to promote big returns for Trump backers.

Yet, the risks of election betting haven’t gone unnoticed. Political figures have been vocal about the dangers these sites pose, especially when it comes to democratic integrity. In a letter published in August, US Senators, including Elizabeth Warren, expressed deep concerns over betting platforms like Polymarket. They argued that these sites could fundamentally undermine democracy by turning elections into financial speculations and introducing financial incentives that distort voting motivations. 

“This mass commodification of the democratic process could erode public trust,” politicians have stated, warning that it might replace personal convictions with profit-driven calculations. 

The letter also raised the point that billionaires, with their massive financial leverage, could have an outsized influence, and pointed out the ethical issue of insiders potentially profiting from privileged information. “If voters believe that democracy is for sale to the highest bidder, trust in the system could suffer lasting damage,” the senators concluded.

As reported by Fortune Crypto, investigations from Chaos Labs and Inca Digital have already uncovered signs of potential market manipulation, with Polymarket’s election trading accounting for about a third of its overall activity. This heavy concentration of betting raises questions about whether the odds reflect genuine voter sentiment or the influence of a few high-powered players.

Polymarket founder Shayne Coplan, however, defends the platform, calling it a kind of “reality check.” The CEO recently wrote on X that betting markets offer a “truer” way to predict outcomes, saying, “The market sets the price, not the operator. It’s the invisible hand, not the thumb on the scale.” In Coplan’s view, betting platforms like Polymarket could eventually turn into a marketplace for truth, replacing sensationalism with what he calls “real” insights.

But the recent frenzy around Trump’s skewed odds, and the looming threat of manipulation, suggests that betting platforms may have unintended consequences for public perception and election integrity. As these platforms gain more traction, questions remain about how their influence may shape not just opinions but actions, further blurring the lines between financial speculation and democratic participation.

As the election nears, the Polymarket controversy is a wake-up call about the new ways money might be used to play politics. So, as you see these betting odds pop up online, remember: just because people are betting big doesn’t mean the numbers tell the real story.